**Degrees lose signaling value unevenly, so universities bifurcate rather than shrink uniformly (20-year horizon).**

The labor-market signal of a bachelor's degree splits along brand lines. At the top of the market — elite privates and brand-name flagships — the degree's signal is anchored in alumni networks, employer pipeline relationships, and prestige filters, which are structurally sticky; those institutions retain pricing power and grow. In the middle of the market, the degree-as-signal erodes: employers shift to skills-based hiring, AI-scored work samples, and verifiable micro-credentials that convey ability more cheaply than a commodity diploma. Mid-tier institutions whose degrees certify "average batch quality" rather than scarce network access lose enrollment share and revenue.

Regional consequence: the decline concentrates where legacy campuses compete against cheaper skill signals in slow-growth labor markets (Midwest/Northeast regionals), while fast-growing Sun Belt / SEC-corridor labor demand buys flagships and land-grants time and headcount — growth there is demand-driven, not signal-driven. Watch the tell: whether major employers drop degree filters faster in skill-scarce metros than in credential-heavy legacy metros.