**Claim (horizon: 2035):** US university enrollment splits into two tracks rather than growing or shrinking uniformly. (1) A **licensure-gated core** — nursing, engineering, teaching, accounting, allied health — retains signaling value because regulation, not the degree, is the moat; demand is resilient and grows modestly in the South and Mountain West where cohorts and populations are expanding. (2) A **general-credential tier** — non-licensure bachelor's at tuition-dependent institutions — contracts sharply as AI-supplied skills substitutes devalue the degree's signaling function, concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest where the 2025 peak in 18-year-olds is already rolling off. Regional variance therefore tracks demographics plus licensure-heavy program mix, not conference affiliation (SEC growth is a demographic artifact, not a brand effect). Watch employer skills-based hiring in the late 2020s as the leading indicator that arrives 3–5 years before the demographic cliff.