# The degree's signaling repricing runs in three phases — slow erosion 2025–2032, rapid compression 2032–2040, and a post-2040 equilibrium of fewer, larger research universities alongside lean teaching institutions selling verified outcomes

**The phased timeline is the core prediction.** 2025–2032: slow erosion, as employers experiment with AI-driven hiring screens and the general BA's premium decays unevenly by sector. 2032–2040: rapid repricing, as the non-elite degree's wage premium compresses visibly — hitting precisely when the demographic trough (the post-2025 graduate peak of ~