# The 2025 enrollment peak is a false dawn: the largest college-bound cohort in US history enters exactly as the degree's screening premium begins eroding, so record 2025–2028 headcount masks the steepest decline the system has ever faced

The 2007 birth peak (~4.3M births) reaches college age 2025–2029, producing the highest high-school-graduate count on record (~3.9M, peaking around 2025 per WICHE). This is the system's enrollment maximum, not a plateau — because it coincides with the first years of demand-side substitution away from the degree itself, not just employer-side screening decay (banked separately). Students choosing under AI