The user wants a final consolidated synthesis note. This is the "revise the notes as a set" instruction — output one Markdown note that is the current best statement of what is established about whether US universities grow or shrink due to AI over the next 20 years, with regional dependence.

Format requirements:
- Start with # title (the claim in one line)
- Short paragraphs
- End with "What would change this: …"
- Keep sources or Unverified: tags for load-bearing numbers
- Don't mention tools, sessions, or revising

Let me compile all durable claims from the notes:

**Core answer:**
- "Both" — the system thins and bifurcates; region- and stratum-specific
- Total enrollment drifts ~19M → ~14–15M by 2045 (Unverified)
- Degrees conferred roughly steady while institution count falls — "thins, doesn't shrink"
- Median campus roughly halves in enrollment
- AI is an accelerant/sorter of existing trends, not the primary cause
- Two-front squeeze: fewer 18-year-olds AND weakened degree signal

**Demography (load-bearing, sourced):**
- Births 4.32M (2007) → ~3.59M (2023), ~17% decline (CDC/NCHS)
- HS grads peak ~3.9M/yr ~2025 (WICHE "Knocking at the College Door")
- Birth dearth hits college age 2029–2037
- NE/Midwest/Plains lose 10–20% college-age (WICHE); TX/FL/TN/GA/Carolinas grow
- Net domestic migration to Sun Belt (Census Bureau)

**Signaling:**
- Screening vs insurance decomposition: screening dies first (AI-verified work samples cheaper than proxy-filtering); insurance (blame-shifting/liability cover) is sticky residue, persists in regulated/litigation-exposed sectors through 2040s
- Post-2035 degree demand tracks a sector's legal/liability regime before it tracks region
- Licensed/statute-gated fields hold (nursing, law, accounting, teaching; engineering, medicine); super-selectives hold
- Mid-tier unlicensed BA premiums compress 30–50% real by mid-2030s (Unverified)
- Fastest collapse in generalist white-collar fields (business, communications, generic liberal arts)
- By ~2035 median degree = positional luxury marker; degree reprices from entry ticket to exit credential
- "AI doesn't kill the degree; it kills the undifferentiated degree"
- Credential-value decay hits by major before by institution
- Pre-AI drift: Burning Glass Institute "The Emerging Degree Reset" (~46% of middle-skill postings dropped degree requirements 2021–22); HBS "Dismissed by Degrees"
- Stanford Digital Economy Lab "Canaries in the Coal Mine" (2025)
- Total degree-seeking enrollment falls 15–25% below demographic baseline by 2045 (Unverified)
- Mid-market enrollment contracts 25–40% by ~2035 (Unverified)
- Micro-credentials are a middle-market illusion — complement at top, fail to stabilize bottom
- Two brakes: AI application floods push employers back to crude degree filters; elite alumni networks
- Elite degrees gain value BECAUSE verification makes mid-tier signals redundant
- Degree survives as insurance (sorting, licensure, networks), not instruction
- Demand migrates to "protected degree + AI skill stack"
- "Bachelor's required" listings fall 30–50% in AI-exposed occupations by late 2030s (Unverified)
- Statutory gatekeeping claim: residual degree value set by statutory gatekeeping, not brand signal. Enrollment holds/grows where license legally requires degree + physical attestation capacity (labs, clinicals); decays fastest where degree is pure wage-signal
- Supply-side: binding constraint flips from demand to physical attestation capacity — proctored assessment, supervised labs, clinical placements, defended capstones. Tiered online-plus-residency models (Georgia Tech OMSCS, ASU) absorb demand and grow; residential-only smalls stay capacity-bound and lose share
- Licensure premium vs signaling premium decomposition: signaling premium dies, licensure premium survives because enforced by state boards; degree wage premium decouples by field
- Hiring decomposes by sector: degree requirements vanish first in at-will, project-based, reputation-portable sectors

**Program mix × region:**
- Licensed vs unlicensed share of credit hours = dominant predictor; region governs whether winning mix is reachable
- Licensed expansion takes 7–10 years (clinical placements, faculty pipelines, state approvals) — longer than declining-region runway → decline locks in
- SEC/Sun Belt publics +10–25% seats through ~2040 as legislatures fund as economic development
- Northeast small privates without licensed core: −30