Let me inventory the durable claims across the notes:

**Note 1 & 2 (same content, 1 is truncated version of 1... actually 2 is the truncated one):**
- By 2045: bifurcation, not uniform shrink. Top ~100 grow, middle hollows into teaching-only, bottom third of four-year schools merge/close. Regional decline tracks demographic map more than AI. (Dated 2025)
- Demography is the load-bearing wall: HS grads peak ~3.9M ~2025–26; post-2008 birth dearth hits college age 2029–2037. Northeast/Midwest/Plains lose 10–20% college-age; TX/FL/TN/GA/Carolinas grow.
- AI as accelerant/sorter, not primary cause. Unbundles campus-credential first at mid-tier. AI tutoring + skills-based hiring erode non-selective degree value.
- Research flagships, land-grants, Sun Belt/SEC growth tiers gain pricing power: population inflow, athletics-attention economies, AI research hub pivot, workforce pipelines.
- Middle loses research identity first → teaching-only → most AI-exposed.
- 2045 university shape: fewer, bigger, regionalized; research engine with experience-economy shell (residential life, stadium, brand); credentialing demoted to trust layer; teaching split between prestige faculty core and model-supervised adjunct tier.
- Region works through tier: North's flagships hold while its teaching schools hollow first.
- Kill-switch: if selective privates AND flagships both show flat/declining yields and international demand despite AI tools, degree itself is devaluing — deeper than bifurcation.

**Note 3:**
- Birth figures: 2007 ~4.32M → 2023 ~3.59M, ~17% decline (this is CDC/NCHS data — the canonical source).
- Two-front squeeze: fewer 18-year-olds AND degree signal weakened (skills directly verifiable).
- Regional map: hardest hit = Northeast/Midwest small privates + open-enrollment regional publics; most resilient = SEC/Sun Belt flagships + super-selectives.
- Super-selectives: "demand is prestige-elastic, not cohort-elastic" — sharp, keep.
- Adaptations: admit-standard relaxation at margin, international recruitment contingent on visa policy, credential repackaging around verified AI skills.
- Watch-tell: endowment repurposing from prestige spending to need-based discounting = school fighting the cliff rather than riding it.

**Note 4:** meta-planning only — nothing to file.

**Note 5:**
- Program mix (licensed vs. unlicensed share of credit hours) is dominant predictor of institutional direction; region governs whether winning mix is reachable.
- SEC/Sunbelt publics hold both advantages: growing cohorts through 2045 + existing nursing/engineering complexes. Grow seats 10–25% through 2040 as legislatures fund them as economic development.
- Northeast/Rust Belt: cohorts contract 10–15% (slightly different from Note 1's 10–20% — Note 1 said college-age population decline 10–20% for Northeast/Midwest/Plains; Note 5 says 10–15% for Northeast/Rust Belt 18yo cohorts. I'll harmonize — probably use 10–20% as the broader claim from Note 1, or note the range. Actually let me just use "10–20%" from Note 1 since it covers the region set, or "10–15%"... The safest is to present one figure. Note 1: "10–20% decline in Northeast/Midwest college-age population." Note 5: "18-year-old cohorts contract 10–15%." These are compatible (10–15% for 18yo specifically, 10–20% for broader college-age). I can say "10–15% (18-year-olds) to 10–20% (broader college-age)" or just pick the 10–20% envelope. I'll harmonize as "roughly 10–20%" with the licensed pivot needing to happen within that.
- Licensed pivot takes 7–10 years (clinical placements, faculty, facilities, state approval) — longer than enrollment runway → decline locks in.
- Northeast small privates without licensed core: −30–50% by 2040 regardless of governance quality.
- Surviving Northeast exceptions: licensed-core with hospital-system or land-grant ties.
- Formulation: "program mix picks the winners, regional demography picks which losers can