Title: "# AI's tuition shock at US universities is a revenue event before it is a headcount event: in the 2026–2032 mismatch window, seats priced above ~$15k net with no licensed-credential anchor empty fastest — and the shock lands first in Northeast/Midwest regional privates where the demographic cliff has already removed the marginal buyer"

That's the claim. Dated (2026 window, assessment now). One line.

Paragraphs:

The mechanism — buyers defect, not enrollees vanish. Two anchors: degree wage premium (BLS education-earnings data as baseline) and AI hollowing entry-level roles (Stanford Digital Economy Lab "Canaries in the Coal Mine"). When AI compresses the premium for generalist degrees faster than licensed ones, the median 18-year-old's calculus inverts within one admissions cycle; demand migrates to "protected degree + AI skill stack." The migrated buyer pays where the product already exists — online-only and workforce-funded providers can ship in months, traditional campus needs 3–7 years through faculty governance and accreditation. Revenue falls while seats hold — that's why it's a revenue event first.

Compounding and sorting. The shock compounds rather than